National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692 Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
The study utilized two downscaled climate model (GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES) outputs from Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu for the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 using regional climate model namely RegCM 4.4. The model output was fed into DSSAT crop simulation for assessing vulnerability of rice crop to projected climate change for near, mid and end of century. The study revealed an increase of maximum temperature for near (0.8 to1.2 0C) mid (1.3 to 2.50C) and end (1.5 to 4.20C) of century while increase of minimum temperature for near (0.7-1.20C) mid (1.3 to 2.60C) and end (1.6-4.50C) century. The rainfall projected was highly variable as indicated by high RMSE value of 117.06 and also showed that rainfall was more for GFDL-ESM2M model and less for HadGEM2-ES model over the time period. The relative difference of rice yield indicated that in RCP 4.5, highest reduction was observed for end of century (-8.6 to -22.1%) followed by mid (-2.2 to 21.1%) and near (+0.1 to -9.1%) while for RCP 8.5, highest reduction was seen during mid (-17.7 to -20.5%) followed by end (-11.9 to -16.3%) and near (-9.6 to 13.6 %) century.
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