Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a crucial rabi crop in Chhattisgarh, occupying approximately 180,000-200,000 hectares in rice-fallow systems, yet yields remain low at 1.2-1.5 t/ha due to weather variability. This study investigates the impacts of key weather parameters—temperature (maximum and minimum), rainfall, and radiation—on wheat growth, phenology, and yield across Chhattisgarh's plains zone, using data from 2000-2019 in nine districts (Bilaspur, Dhamtari, Durg, Janjgir, Kawardha, Korba, Mahasamund, Raipur, Rajnandgaon). Regression models (linear, quadratic, cubic, compound, exponential) were fitted to relate yields to weather variables, with quadratic models selected based on R², RMSE, and MAE. Additional field experiments (2010-2013) assessed thermal (GDD, HTU, PTU) and efficiency indices (HUE, RUE) for four varieties (Kanchan, GW-273, Sujata, Amar) under five sowing dates. Results revealed a significant positive effect of minimum temperature on yields (b? = -0.404, p=0.003), while maximum temperature showed marginal significance (p=0.051), and rainfall was non-significant. Quadratic fits explained 5-20% yield variance, with trends indicating increasing productivity with moderate temperature rises but declines under extremes. Delayed sowing reduced GDD accumulation by 15-20%, HUE by 20%, and RUE by 19%, leading to 28% yield loss (from 3.3 t/ha timely to 2.4 t/ha late). Kanchan variety exhibited superior adaptability (yield 3.2 t/ha, HUE 0.39 g/m² °day). Broader Indian context showed 1°C temperature increases reducing yields 2-4%, compounded by air pollution dimming radiation.

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