National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Daily discharge data for 30 years of five gauging stations of Mahanadi river basin of Odisha, India were collected and analysed for prediction of peak flood discharge. The five gauging stations under the study are Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata, Sundargarh and Tikarapara. Using the daily data, peak daily discharge data of ach station of each year were found out. The peak daily discharge data of various stations were analyzed by “FLOOD” software and the values at different probability of exceedences (PE) by 12 different probability distributions like Normal, Log-Normal (3p), Pearson, Log-Pearson, Weibull, Generalized Pareto, Extreme Value Type III, Gumble-maximum, Gumble-minimum, Generalised Extreme Value, Exponential and Gamma were predicted. The best fit distribution was decided by chi-square test as well as 2 other statistical tests i.e. root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute relative error (MARE). Based on the lowest values of statistical parameters of Chi square, RMSE and MARE, best fit probability distributions of each station was decided. Generalised Pareto distribution for Kantamal and Kesinga, Log-Pearson in Salebhata and Sundargarh station and Generalised Extreme Value in Tikarapara station are found to be the best fit probability distribution. Values of discharge at different probability levels were predicted by the best fit distributions for each station. Values of peak discharge at 20% PE level as predicted by the best fit distributions for Kantamal, Kesinga, Salebhata, Sundargarh and Tikarapara are 14964.51, 13286.95, 4171.32, 3106.23 and 28057.23 m3/s, respectively. These values may be considered for design of hydraulic structures in respective stations.
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