National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692 Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
This research study was carried out to fit different Linear, Non – Linear and time series ARIMA models on Area, Production and Productivity of Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) in Andhra Pradesh for the period 1965-66 to 2017-18.The statistically best fitted model was chosen on the basis of goodness of fit criteria viz. R2, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Among all the models ARIMA (3, 0, 0), ARIMA (3, 0, 3) and ARIMA (3, 1, 1) models, were found to be the best fitted models and these models are used to forecast area, production and productivity of Sesame crop in Andhra Pradesh for further five years. The forecasted results showed for area, production and productivity of Sesame crop for the year 2020-21 to be 51.66 thousand hectare, 17.64 thousand tonnes and 323.43 in kg/hectare respectively. And also it is showed, there is a fluctuated trend on Area and Production and increasing trend on Productivity from the period 2018-19 to 2022-23.
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