National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Coconut is an important plantation crop which India holds third position in production. Coconut has the never ending list of uses also is facing numerous hurdles adding pressure to the mere survival of the sector. With increasing human population forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects. ARIMA, ARIMAx and Combined forecast techniques used to model and forecast the production of coconut until 2020 using time series data for a period of 1949 to 2015. For India as a whole the best fitted models ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMAx (1,1,0) and the Combined forecast techniques projected coconut production to be 23396.122, 33013.792, 28204.957 Million nuts respectively. It is found that combined forecasting performed better compared with ARIMA and ARIMAx in all most all cases considering the criteria of R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE. Among the three methods of modeling and forecasting ARIMAx models outperform ARIMA models and combined forecasting method yields better modeling and forecasting accuracy.
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