National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Weather forecast issued by India meteorological department and value added by Met Centre Srinagar was compared with actual weather data recorded at Agrometerological Observatory AMFU-Chatha to assess the validity and accuracy of weather forecast during 2016-17. Various test criteria were used to test the reliability and accuracy of the forecasted weather. The results indicated that correct forecast for rainfall was found to be maximum (99.26 %) in post monsoon season followed by winter season (70.58 %), pre monsoon season (59.23 %) and monsoon season (40.22 %). The correct maximum temperature values were found to be maximum in the post monsoon season (55.50 %) followed by monsoon season (34.45 %), pre monsoon season (32.63 %) and winter season (31.89 %). The minimum temperature values were found to be least predicted. The maximum correct values of morning relative humidity (Max. RH) were found in the monsoon season (57.08 %) followed by post monsoon season (41.65 %). In the pre monsoon season and winter season the correct values were 34.39 and 14.76 per cent, respectively. The efficiency of forecast was good for day first, second, third and fourth and poor for fifth day. But fifth day (Saturday) in Tuesday advisory becomes second day in following Friday advisory similarly fifth day (Tuesday) in Friday advisory becomes first day in following Tuesday advisory so poor efficiency of forecast for fifth day does not affect overall efficiency of forecast. Correlation coefficients were derived between the forecasted and observed values during different seasons. RMSE calculated for all the five days during all the seasons indicates forecast value in agreement with observed value.
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