National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
|
PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Crop acreage estimation and crop yield forecasting are two components, which are crucial for proper planning and policy making in the agriculture sector of the country. This research is a study model of forecasting area, production and productivity of rice in Thanjavur district as it is a “Rice bowl of Tamil Nadu”. Data for the period of 1990-91 to 2014-15 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. For forecasting area, production and productivity ARIMA (0, 1, 2), (0, 1, 1) and (0, 1, 1) model respectively were used to forecast five leading years. The results also shows area forecast for the year 2020 to be about 158.15 thousand hectare with upper and lower limit 200.85 and 122.80 thousand hectares respectively, production forecast to be about 637.05 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limit 1057.63 and 216.47 thousand tonnes respectively and productivity forecast to be about 3.79 thousand kg per ha with upper and lower limit 5.83 and 1.75 thousand kg per ha respectively. The growth pattern was examined by fitting an exponential function (Y = ABt). The result showed that the compound growth rate of rice was negative and non significant for area, production and yield for the study periods.
Citations |
 |
 |
 |
 |
