National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692 Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Accurate prediction of trends in monthly and annual rainfall is an important aspect of climate research and we believe that present study could provide a scope to correlate between current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area. In the present study secular changes in the monthly and annual rainfall of 14tahsils for the period of 23 years from 1998 – 2020 in Ahmednagar, Maharashtra have been studied. Trend analysis was statistically examined in two phases i.e., initially the presence of a monotonic increasing or decreasing trend was tested using the non-parametric Mann Kendall test. Then the rate of change was estimated with the help of Sen’s slope test. The slope of the trend indicates the rate and direction of change. The results of the trends were tested at 90, 95 and 99 percent confidence levels for significance. Then trend is also calculated by Moving average and Least square method and it is compared with the Mann Kendall method. There are many types of Trends, the trend may be increasing or decreasing at various time interval. These variables are observed over a long period of time and any changes related to time or noted and calculated and a Trend of these changes is established. Some remain relatively constant and reverse from growth to decline or from decline to growth over a period of time. A change in these conditions would affect the forecast we present various test to detect the best suitable trend for the rainfall time series. The lowest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed during July and the highest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed during October month.
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