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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
IJCMAS is now DOI (CrossRef) registered Research Journal. The DOIs are assigned to all published IJCMAS Articles.
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2019: 96.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2019 - IJCMAS--ICV 2019: 96.39
For more details click here

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Original Research Articles

PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2021.10(8): 194-209
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2021.1008.024


Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Rainfall in Different Tahsils of Ahmednagar District
Pravin N. Jadhav1*, Vikram Singh1, Mohd Aftab Alamand Tushar Rathod1
1Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering,
2Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, VIAET, SHUATS, Naini,Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Accurate prediction of trends in monthly and annual rainfall is an important aspect of climate research and we believe that present study could provide a scope to correlate between current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area. In the present study secular changes in the monthly and annual rainfall of 14tahsils for the period of 23 years from 1998 – 2020 in Ahmednagar, Maharashtra have been studied. Trend analysis was statistically examined in two phases i.e., initially the presence of a monotonic increasing or decreasing trend was tested using the non-parametric Mann Kendall test. Then the rate of change was estimated with the help of Sen’s slope test. The slope of the trend indicates the rate and direction of change. The results of the trends were tested at 90, 95 and 99 percent confidence levels for significance. Then trend is also calculated by Moving average and Least square method and it is compared with the Mann Kendall method. There are many types of Trends, the trend may be increasing or decreasing at various time interval. These variables are observed over a long period of time and any changes related to time or noted and calculated and a Trend of these changes is established. Some remain relatively constant and reverse from growth to decline or from decline to growth over a period of time. A change in these conditions would affect the forecast we present various test to detect the best suitable trend for the rainfall time series. The lowest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed during July and the highest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed during October month.


Keywords: trend analysis, climate change, Tahsils, Ahmednagar, Maharashtra
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How to cite this article:

Pravin N. Jadhav, Vikram Singh, Mohd Aftab Alam and Tushar Rathod. 2021. Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Rainfall in Different Tahsils of Ahmednagar District.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 10(8): 194-209. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2021.1008.024