National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
An attempt was made to forecast the prices of cotton in Andhra Pradesh, India. The Box-Jenkins procedure is concerned in fitting a mixed Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to a given set of data. ARIMA model is a combination of AR and MA models with suitable order of differencing. The first step in developing ARIMA model is to examine data for stationarity. A model was identified for the prices of cotton in Kurnool district. The monthly wholesale prices from April 2007 to March 2019 were used to estimate the ACF and PACF. The price data were tested for stationarity. It can be clearly seen from the table that there is fall in the values of ACF from 0.926 to 0.428.It was observed from the analysis that the model is valid by observing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil U statistics. Average MAPE was 10.15 per cent for the year 2019 and Theil U was greater than 1 which showed the model (1,1, 3) is best for forecasting. A model was identified for the prices of cotton in Krishna market. The monthly wholesale prices from April 2007 to March 2019 were used to estimate the ACF and PACF. The price data were tested for stationarity. It can be clearly seen from the table that there is fall in the values of ACF from 0.926 to 0.618.It was observed from the analysis as mentioned in the table 4.20 that the model is valid by observing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil U statistics. Average MAPE was 7.54 percent for the year 2019.
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