National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
West Bengal is a State where agriculture is mainly dependent on monsoon rainfall. But, erratic rainfall patterns cause a major negative impact on annual food-grain production. Time series forecasting has evolved as a major tool in different applications in hydrology and environmental management fields. The prediction of rainfall on time scales although scientifically challenging is nonetheless very important for decisive planning of agricultural strategies. In the present study, Box-Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA modeling was deployed in forecasting of monthly rainfall in Gangetic West Bengal up to 2020 based on data from 1960-2010 (a period of 50 years). The evaluation of validity of the performance of the selected model was carried out on the basis of the good-ness of fit (Chi-square), R2 (coefficient of determination), RMSE (root mean square error), MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and MAE (mean absolute error). The ARIMA model (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 fitted here was found to be most suitable for forecasting total monthly rainfall over the Gangetic West Bengal. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall for the next ten years in the Gangetic West Bengal region to assist policy makers to establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution and disaster management.
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