National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
|
PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
The weather forecast and actual weather data received from Indian Meteorological Department, Pune were compared to verify the accuracy of rainfall forecast for the year 2015- 16 at AMFU centre, Kovilpatti, Tamil Nadu. The forecast verification for rainfall verified by using the statistical tools of Forecast Accuracy, Critical Success Index, Heidke Skill Score and Hanssen and Kuipers Scores. The analysis of rainfall verification revealed that, the number of hits (predicted and observed as no rain - NN) was 47.0, 35.0 & 44.0, the occurrences of rain (YY) was 29.2, 43.2 & 32.2, the numbers of false alarms (YN) was 28. 17.2 & 21.0 and the number of misses (NY) were 6.6, 8.8 & 7.0 over 104 forecast for Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi district, respectively. Forecast Accuracy (ACC) ranged from 0.7 to 0.8 and the highest accuracy of rainfall prediction was observed in Tirunelveli district followed by Virudhunagar and Thoothukudi. Similarly Critical Success Index (CSI) was recorded the values of 0.51, 0.60 and 0.50 for Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi district, respectively. Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was accounted as 0.50 for three districts. Among the five days of forecast, ACC for Virudhunagar registered the higher accuracy of rainfall prediction at day 1 and 3 (78 per cent) followed by day 5 (71 per cent). For Tirunelveli, day 1 recorded the higher accuracy (81 per cent) followed by day 4 (78 per cent). The higher accuracy of rainfall prediction of 78 per cent for day 1 and 77 per cent for day 3 were recorded at Thoothukudi district.
Citations |
 |
 |
 |
 |
